Clinical, laboratory, and temporal predictors of neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 among COVID-19 convalescent plasma donor candidates.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies may protect from reinfection and disease, providing rationale for administration of plasma containing SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies (nAb) as a treatment for COVID-19. Clinical factors and laboratory assays to streamline plasma donor selection, and the durability of nAb responses, are incompletely understood. METHODS: Potential convalescent plasma donors with virologically-documented SARS-CoV-2 infection were tested for serum IgG to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein S1 domain, nucleoprotein (NP), and for nAb. RESULTS: Amongst 250 consecutive persons, including 27 (11%) requiring hospitalization, studied a median of 67 days since symptom onset, 97% were seropositive on one or more assays. Sixty percent of donors had nAb titers ≥1:80. Correlates of higher nAb titer included older age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.03/year of age, 95% CI 1.00-1.06), male sex (AOR 2.08, 95% CI 1.13-3.82), fever during acute illness (AOR 2.73, 95% CI 1.25-5.97), and disease severity represented by hospitalization (AOR 6.59, 95% CI 1.32-32.96). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses of anti-S1 and anti-NP antibody results yielded cutoffs that corresponded well with nAb titers, with the anti-S1 assay being slightly more predictive. NAb titers declined in 37 of 41 paired specimens collected a median of 98 days (range, 77-120) apart (P<0.001). Seven individuals (2.8%) were persistently seronegative and lacked T cell responses. CONCLUSIONS: Nab titers correlated with COVID-19 severity, age, and sex. Standard commercially available SARS-CoV-2 IgG results can serve as useful surrogates for nAb testing. Functional nAb levels were found to decline and a small proportion of persons recovered from COVID-19 lack adaptive immune responses.