Health 2000 score - development and validation of a novel cardiovascular risk score.

AbstractBackground: Previous risk scores for predicting myocardial infarctions and strokes have mainly been based on conventional risk factors. We aimed to develop a novel improved risk score that would incorporate other widely available clinical variables for predicting the broadest range of endpoints, including revascularizations.Methods: A nationwide sample of 5843 Finns underwent a clinical examination in 2000–2001. The participants were followed for a median of 11.2 years for incident cardiovascular events. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed and internal validation was performed.Results: Sex, age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, smoking status, parental death from cardiovascular disease, left ventricular hypertrophy, hemoglobin A1c, and educational level remained significant predictors of cardiovascular events (p ≤ 0.005 for all). The share of participants with ≥10% estimated cardiovascular risk was 28.9%, 18.5%, 36.9% and 23.8% with the Health 2000, Finri...