Probabilistic Modeling of Impact of Vehicles on the Road Furniture

Near driving lanes of roadways, numerous components of transport infrastructure are located along the route. Such components have to be secured by restraint systems, and in many cases different road lanes must also be effectively separated from each other. The focus of the study presented herein is to present a probabilistic approach for the departure of motor vehicles from their intended lane. Presently, assessments of the road infrastructure regarding possible accidents are primarily oriented to evaluating the resistance side. On the other hand, this paper intends to address the impact side by focusing on the likelihood of impact of vehicles on the road furniture. In order to determine the probability of impact, parameters of the traffic composition of the alignment, and of the pavement conditions were studied. A novel methodology is presented herein, which by accounting for these factors assesses the fragility of the infrastructure sub-system. The assessment joins both road engineering physics and expert judgements, and it is incorporated in spreadsheet tool. The feasibility of the tool is demonstrated, and sensitivities of the evaluation process are discussed and evaluated.