A PROBABILISTIC MODEL OF REGIONAL-SCALE RESPONSE TO EXTREME STORM EVENTS

Predicting beach erosion caused by extreme storms remains a key focus of the coastal engineering community, having important implications for both emergency and long-term coastal management and planning. In June 2016, an extra-tropical cyclone impacted the east coast of Australia, resulting in the largest erosion event recorded in this region for several decades. High-resolution data collected during this event included immediate pre and post-storm airborne LIDAR measurements of the subaerial beach along 400 km of coastline, as well as detailed modeling of inshore wave conditions. This unprecedented data set presents a unique opportunity to explore key drivers of the observed local and regional variability in the response of beaches to extreme storm events.