A predictive model for determining rectum and bladder dose constraints in prostate volumetric modulated arc therapy.

Generic dose-volume constraints of the rectum/bladder (R/B) are used in inverse planning to reduce doses to these organs for patients undergoing prostate radiotherapy. A retrospective study was undertaken to assess correlations between the overlap of the R/B with the planning target volume (PTV) and the dose received during planning to organs at risk (OARs). Data for 105 prostate cancer patients who had volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) to the intact prostate and proximal seminal vesicles at Nepean Cancer Care Centre from 2011 to 2015 were analyzed. R/B volume, R/B-PTV overlap volume, and R/B-PTV overlap percent metrics were collected with VMAT planning objectives. Characteristics were evaluated for correlation with different planning outcomes. The percentage overlap between the R/B and PTV were highly correlated to the doses to the relevant OAR, with a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.63 for the rectum volume percentage receiving more than 75 Gy (RV75Gy) and R2 of 0.91 for the bladder volume percentage receiving more than 70 Gy (BV70Gy). We identified a cut-off value of 10.14% (sensitivity 84.62%, specificity 80.43%) as predictive of RV75Gy < 10% and a cut-off of 7.95% (sensitivity 97.62%, specificity 92.06%) as predictive of BV70Gy < 15%. A 95% prediction interval assisted in identifying individualized R/B planning goals. The R/B-PTV percentage overlap has a high reliability in estimating sparing of the R/B. This prediction model can be used to improve planning efficiency and create customised automated OAR planning goals in prostate VMAT plans. By doing this, the radiation doses received by these OARs can be minimized.