Integration of Expert Judgment into Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction of Components

Abstract Accurate estimates of renewal instances are necessary to avoid both machine breakdowns as well as unnecessary replacements. These instances are based upon a prognosis of the remaining useful lifetime of the components investigated but their usability is limited because of insufficient failure time data. Therefore the paper at hand deals with the integration of expert knowledge into lifetime estimation methods to enhance the prediction result. A model has been developed and simulated. Furthermore a parameter study analyzes the model's effectiveness, which produces promising results.