Stochastic Modeling of Human-Induced Thermokarst and Natural Risk Assessment for Existing and Planned Engineering Structures

The aim of the present research is a stochastic modeling of initiated thermokarst developing along a linear structure and its impact risk assessment by thermokarst basing on the mathematical morphology of landscape approaches. Two versions of the models of the initiated thermokarst for linear structures are considered: the model of the initiated thermokarst 1.0 (linear variant) and the model of the initiated thermokarst 1.1 (zone variant). The research allows to make the following conclusions: Models of initiated thermokarst developing along linear structures (a linear and a zone variants) are created, and their empirical verification is done. Distribution laws for initiated thermokarst foci are obtained for the area of the linear structure influence, including the lognormal distribution of the foci areas and the exponential distribution of distances between the projections of the centers of foci into a linear structure. The mathematical landscape morphology approach allows us to estimate the thermokarst impact probability for linear structures.