La sostenibilidad y resiliencia de un sistema agroforestal de secano para el altiplano semiárido de México

The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate simulation (EPIC) model with a 100-year forecast horizon was used to evaluate the sustainability and resilience of an agroforestry system (SAF) rainfed for the rotation sorghum cultivation pattern with beans and live barriers to the outline of nopal (Opuntia sp.) and leucaena (Leucocephala Glauca) with the traditional system (ST) with monoculture. The erosion/productivity index (IEP) was used to measure the impact of erosion on the productivity of sorghum and beans. The historical change in the pattern of annual precipitation (PA) and the different phenomena associated with it (runoff Q, erosion E and yield Ῡ) was determined using the fractal dimension (D) of said parameters, applying the coefficient of Hurst (H), to determine if they show persistence. It was found that the perspectives of sustainability and resilience of the ST, measured using the productive life indexes (IVP), of productive loss (IPP) and equilibrium yield (ER), of the sorghum (IEP of 0.4) and the bean (IVP of 0.8 and IEP greater than 0.6) are low. In contrast, the SAF presented an IEP value of 1 that makes it sustainable and resilient, with better perspectives to resist or recover from extreme climates (droughts or heavy rains) compared to the ST, which is recommended to replace to avoid greater deterioration of the future productivity of the system in the semiarid Highlands region of Aguascalientes. Keywords: crop rotation, fractal dimension, monoculture, resilience, simulation mode