Changes in carbon dioxide emissions and LMDI-based impact factor decomposition: the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region as a case

Studies on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at provincial level can provide a scientific basis for the optimal use of energy and the formulation of CO2 reduction policies. We studied the variation of CO2 emissions of primary energy consumption and its influencing factors based on data in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region from 1952 to 2008, which were calculated according to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Xinjiang’ CO2 emission process from 1952 to 2008 could be divided into five stages according to the growth rates of total amount of CO2 emissions and CO2 emission intensity. The impact factors were quantitatively analyzed using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method in each stage. Various factors, including government policies and technological progress related to the role of CO2 emissions, were comprehensively analyzed, and the internal relationships among various factors were clarified. The results show that the contribution rates of various impact factors are different in each stage. Overall, economic growth and energy consumption intensity were the main driving factors for CO2 emissions. Since the implementation of the birth control policy, the driving force of population growth on the increase in CO2 emissions has slowly weakened. The energy consumption intensity was further affected by the industrial structure and energy consumption intensity of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, with the energy consumption intensity of the secondary industries and the proportion of secondary industries being the most important factors affecting the energy consumption intensity. Governmental policies and technological progress were also important factors that affected CO2 emissions.