Uncertainties in source term calculations generated by the ORIGEN2 computer code for Hanford Production Reactors

The ORIGEN2 computer code is the primary calculational tool for computing isotopic source terms for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. The ORIGEN2 code computes the amounts of radionuclides that are created or remain in spent nuclear fuel after neutron irradiation and radioactive decay have occurred as a result of nuclear reactor operation. ORIGEN2 was chosen as the primary code for these calculations because it is widely used and accepted by the nuclear industry, both in the United States and the rest of the world. Its comprehensive library of over 1,600 nuclides includes any possible isotope of interest to the HEDR Project. It is important to evaluate the uncertainties expected from use of ORIGEN2 in the HEDR Project because these uncertainties may have a pivotal impact on the final accuracy and credibility of the results of the project. There are three primary sources of uncertainty in an ORIGEN2 calculation: basic nuclear data uncertainty in neutron cross sections, radioactive decay constants, energy per fission, and fission product yields; calculational uncertainty due to input data; and code uncertainties (i.e., numerical approximations, and neutron spectrum-averaged cross-section values from the code library). 15 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.