Association of follow-up infarct volume with functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke: a pooled analysis of seven randomized trials

Background Follow-up infarct volume (FIV) has been recommended as an early indicator of treatment efficacy in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Questions remain about the optimal imaging approach for FIV measurement. Objective To examine the association of FIV with 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score and investigate its dependency on acquisition time and modality. Methods Data of seven trials were pooled. FIV was assessed on follow-up (12 hours to 2 weeks) CT or MRI. Infarct location was defined as laterality and involvement of the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score regions. Relative quality and strength of multivariable regression models of the association between FIV and functional outcome were assessed. Dependency of imaging modality and acquisition time (≤48 hours vs >48 hours) was evaluated. Results Of 1665 included patients, 83% were imaged with CT. Median FIV was 41 mL (IQR 14–120). A large FIV was associated with worse functional outcome (OR=0.88(95% CI 0.87 to 0.89) per 10 mL) in adjusted analysis. A model including FIV, location, and hemorrhage type best predicted mRS score. FIV of ≥133 mL was highly specific for unfavorable outcome. FIV was equally strongly associated with mRS score for assessment on CT and MRI, even though large differences in volume were present (48 mL (IQR 15–131) vs 22 mL (IQR 8–71), respectively). Associations of both early and late FIV assessments with outcome were similar in strength (ρ=0.60(95% CI 0.56 to 0.64) and ρ=0.55(95% CI 0.50 to 0.60), respectively). Conclusions In patients with an acute ischemic stroke due to a proximal intracranial occlusion of the anterior circulation, FIV is a strong independent predictor of functional outcome and can be assessed before 48 hours, oneither CT or MRI.