Improving teacher prediction of children at risk for reading failure

Whether screening tests or teacher ratings best predict children at risk for reading failure continues to be an area of disagreement in the early identification literature. Our early studies confirmed low positive identification rates (30%) when kindergarten teachers were asked to predict future reading achievement using a traditional rating scale, while a project-developed, theory-based screening battery correctly identified 81% of poor readers. Construction of a teacher rating scale of current skill levels on research-validated precursors to reading improved prediction in the current study, although results were still inferior to the screening test (64% and 80% valid positives, respectively). Combining test results and teacher ratings resulted in 88% identification of those who failed in first, second, or third grade, suggesting that both teacher ratings and screening tests should be used to identify the largest number of those who will later fail in reading. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.