Trajectories of insecurity: Young adults' employment entry, health and well-being

Abstract Young adults in the transition from education to employment are vulnerable to employment insecurity. We explore trajectories of employment insecurity over six years after leaving education, and investigate their associations with sociodemographic predictors, self-reported health and life satisfaction. Based on a sample of 2752 education leavers from a representative longitudinal dataset in Germany, we identify five distinct trajectories via latent class growth analysis: (1) ‘smooth transition’ (43%) signifies a quick entrance into permanent employment; (2) ‘inhibited transition’ (23%) comprises repeated temporary employment; (3) ‘stepping stone’ (21%) indicates a transition from temporary to permanent employment; (4) ‘long-term NEET’ (not in education, employment or training, 10%) describes persistent exclusion; and (5) ‘dropout’ (3%) captures transitions from permanent employment to NEET status and/or temporary employment. Low education and migration background are associated with long-term NEET status. Both low education and high education are associated with inhibited transitions. Young women face fewer difficulties after leaving education than men, but parenthood increases women's likelihood of insecure trajectories. Long-term NEET status and inhibited transitions are associated with persistently lower health and life satisfaction. We find deteriorating health among long-term NEETs and the stepping stone trajectory; and deteriorating life satisfaction for long-term NEETs, the inhibited transition and dropouts.