Mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain: how much longer will dockyards dominate?

Background: Great Britain pioneered the use of asbestos and now has the highest mesothelioma incidence in the world. Dockyards were an important exposure source and environmental studies have shown strong associations with mesothelioma. Our aim was to assess whether there has been a geographical shift in the distribution of cases given the decline of shipbuilding and progressive exposure regulation. Methods: We compared spatial autocorrelation statistics (Moran’s I) for mesothelioma standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) at ward level for 2002-2008 and 2009-2015. Subsequently we measured the mean distance of the deceased’s postcode to the nearest dockyard at ward level using postcode centroid data provided by HSE and openstreetmap geodata. The coefficient of distance to dockyard for ward SMR was calculated using ordinary least squares regression for men and women, for the whole period, 2002-2008, and 2009-2015. Results: Moran’s I (p Conclusion: Moran’s I is lower for men in 2009-2015 than 2002-2008 suggesting mesothelioma deaths are becoming more dispersed but dockyards remain strongly spatially associated with mortality.