Application of a statistical forecast model on the olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae) infestation and oil analysis in Albania.

In our paper we evaluated a statistical-mathematic forecast model on the seriousness of the infestation of Bactrocera oleae (Rossi) which is in some years particularly favourable to Tripetidae, and can cause considerable qualitative and quantitative damage. Three cultivars which represent the Albanian olive-growing environment were taken into consideration: "Boci", "Kalinjot" and "Ulliri i Bardhe i Tiranes". It was necessary to do treatment only for the Boci cultivar while the Ulliri i Bardhe i Tiranes and Ka- linjot were not treated because the intervention threshold (Z) was not reached. At harvest, Ulliri i Bardhe i Tiranes and Kalinjot showed slight levels of infestation (about 7%) and the oils obtained were of outstanding quality (extra virgin). The untreated Boci cultivar, instead, had 67% infested drupes at harvest and the oil extracted showed serious defects and an acidity of 1.97. 2010 was marked by a high intensity of infestation detected in the Boci cultivar that has allowed us to prove the validity of the mathematical forecast model on the seriousness of the infestation. It is worth noting that in years of low intensity of infestation, we would not have significant responses, as we have highlighted in several olive groves in Italy and abroad. The results indicated that the ap- plied model accurately forecasts the trend of the infestation regarding the average catches of females/trap/week and the average temperature of the same week. In light of the present results, we suggest extending research to other native cultivars and in differ- ent olive-growing environments; this will allow us to single out more suitable cultivars which can be included in the development programs of the Albanian olive-growing.