Exploring Variation in Built Environment Predictors of Ridership by Transit Mode (Paper No: 20-01322)
2020
Supplementary presentation to support poster presented at Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, 2020.Version two contains results updated to reflect corrections to bus ridership data. Presentation details:Session:
1695, Current Topics in Public Transportation
Session Location: Hall A / Convention Center
Session Time: Wednesday, Jan 15, 2020 8:00AM 9:45AM
Paper: 20-01322 - Exploring Variation in Built Environment
Predictors of Ridership by Transit ModePresentation Abstract:Many studies have identified links between
the built environment and transit use. However, little is known about whether
the built environment predictors of bus, train, tram and other transit services
are different. Studies to date typically analyze modes in aggregate, by combining
bus, train, and tram; or analyze each mode separately. Findings from these
studies demonstrate the built environment attributes that are relevant for
apportioning trips to transit. However, they do not differentiate demand for competing
modes. This study aims to investigate if built environment impacts on transit
ridership vary according to mode, by analyzing two types of co-located
(matched) transit modes (train-bus and tram-bus) in Melbourne. Multivariate
multiple linear regression models were estimated to identify the relationships
between different indicators of the built environment with patronage of each
mode.
This research
indicates built environment impacts on ridership vary in type and relative
importance according to mode. Tram and bus shared three significant predictors out of six. Access to employment and land use diversity were strong predictors of tram use but not bus, while bus depended on more sociodemographic and service factors than tram. In the train-bus sample, bus ridership was predicted by five built environment variables and train by four, but only one variable was a common predictor to both. These
differences provide evidence that built environment impacts on transit cannot
be generalized for all modes. This suggests that ridership models differentiated for modes could produce more accurate forecasts.
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