Ventilator Requirements Modelling for the 2020 winter season from the CoVID-19 Preparedness Project.
2020
Objective
To estimate
the ventilator requirements for an Australian metropolitan Emergency Department
for the period of June to September 2020. The service sees in excess of 80,000
presentations annually. In the midst of the CoVID-19 pandemic, every critically
unwell respiratory patient will be managed as a suspected case, meaning full
personal protective equipment, negative pressure rooms if available, and early
intubation for invasive ventilation. This represents a significant increase in
workload, and this study seeks to estimate a component of this work.
Methods
Monthly
estimates of patients presenting with urgent and critical respiratory disease1 derived from the CoVID-19
Preparedness Project2 were obtained [mean and standard
deviation (sd)]. Daily presentations were estimated by sampling from a normal
distribution where mean = monthly presentations ÷ days in the
month, and sd = monthly sd ÷ days in the
month. Percentage of critical respiratory patients requiring ventilators was
estimated based on the Wuhan data, with 37/52 = 71.1% patients requiring this3. Total ventilator requirements were calculated as a
trailing sum based on the number of patients requiring ventilation in the last
seven days. The simulation was repeated 100 times. The six days simulated prior
to the study period were not included in the final data presentation. The model
was built with ModelRisk v6.1.5.
Results
Based on
the experiment’s assumptions, for a hospital that sees in excess of 80,000
presentations annually, forty ventilators would be required to meet the
required demand until 1st August 2020, after which 48 ventilators
would then be required.
Conclusion
Rates of
invasive ventilation are expected to increase in the coming winter season.
Hospitals should be preparing the infrastructure, equipment and staffing to
accommodate an expected surge in demand.
Funding
Nil funding.
References:
1. Lim A. Forecast of category 1 & 2
Emergency Department respiratory presentations in an Australian metropolitan
Emergency Department. ResearchGate Open Access Repository; 2020.
doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.15091.27687
2. Lim A. The
CoVID-19 Preparedness Project: ResearchGate Open Access Repository; 2020
[Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/project/The-CoVID-19-Preparedness-Project].
3. Yang X, Yu Y, Xu J, Shu H, Liu H, Wu Y, et al. Clinical
course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in
Wuhan, China: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study. The Lancet Respiratory Medicine. 2020.
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