A Methodological Proposal for Risk Analysis in the Construction of Tunnels

Colombia is in the process of modernizing and changing its road infrastructure and, despite the fact that in this process the government entities request the contractors elements of risk analysis and assessment, this country has a precarious risk management for infrastructure projects. This research is intended to determine the project schedule affectation due to the materialization of risks and to stablish a risk assessment methodology considering the context of the project. The proposed methodology first takes into account the quantification of the probability of occurrence of the event or risk with the Bayesian analysis and their respective networks, in order to look at the interaction of their causes and their repercussion in the final event analyzed. Subsequently, the impact of the risk on the duration of the activity is found. Finally, the risk value (P × I) is calculated using a Monte Carlo Simulation technique, obtaining as a result a value in days of possible delay that must be compared with the value that details the initial programming. The methodology is realistic since it considers any type of risk that could be presented in a project, from engineering problems, to social events. Currently, the methodology is being implemented in a real project in order to evaluate it against the progress of the same, obtaining information so that later, organizations can propose the necessary contingency measures to deal with the risks presented.