Development and internal validation of a prediction model for in-hospital mortality in geriatric hip fracture patients.

OBJECTIVE To develop and validate a prediction model for in-hospital mortality in hip fracture patients 85 years of age or older undergoing surgery. DESIGN multicenter prospective cohort study SETTING:: six Dutch trauma centers, level two and three PARTICIPANTS:: hip fracture patients 85 years of age or older undergoing surgery INTERVENTION:: hip fracture surgery MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS:: in-hospital mortality RESULTS:: The development cohort consisted of 1014 patients. In-hospital mortality was 4%. Age, male sex, ASA classification and hemoglobin levels at presentation were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. The bootstrap adjusted performance showed good discrimination with a c-statistic of 0.77. CONCLUSION Age, male sex, higher ASA classification and lower hemoglobin levels at presentation are robust independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in geriatric hip fracture patients and were incorporated in a simple prediction model with good accuracy and no lack of fit.