Key barriers to the commercial use of the Northern Sea Route: View from China with a fuzzy DEMATEL approach

Abstract The unprecedented reduction in the Arctic sea ice may lead to shipping shortcuts through the Arctic region. Among these, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) linking Europe and Asia has received wide attention because of its potential to save time and energy compared with the conventional southerly transit. However, limited by various factors, the NSR has not witnessed sustained commercial operation, that is, no shipping companies have started regular services there. By reviewing existing literature, we classify 10 factors that have influenced NSR development into four categories: natural conditions, commercial costs, service support, and political considerations. We evaluate the interdependent relationships among these factors through a fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory model (DEMATEL), an effective approach in identifying the cause–effect chain in an uncertain and complex decision-making environment. The most critical elements restricting Arctic NSR development include extreme climate, political considerations, and sea ice condition based on expert inputs. This study discusses relations among these factors as well as their policy implications, which could contribute to the decision making of shipping companies and policy focus of the government.