Adversarial strategic competition between China and the United States: understanding and mitigating its risks

China and the US are entering a period of adversarial strategic competition. That competition will have significant risks for both countries, ranging from competitive strategic armament through crisis and conflict escalation, to the threat or even use of nuclear weapons. A cooperative US–China process is urgently needed to mitigate these risks of adversarial strategic competition. Multi-tiered strategic dialogue—official, semi-official, and military-to-military—should form the foundation of such a process. That dialogue should be followed by exploration of more specific risk mitigation approaches and associated measures. Many approaches are possible; the two countries would need to work out the practical details of how to proceed. Parallel and reciprocated unilateral actions offer a means for both countries to signal intentions, exercise restraint, and address strategic concerns of the other country. In addition, particular attention should be given to exploring joint statements or politically-binding agreements, for example, affirming the Reagan–Gorbachev principle, or stabilizing the US–China mutual deterrence relationship, and/or mutual no-first-strategic attacks. Though questions will arise in both China and the US about pursuing a process of cooperative strategic risk mitigation—and doing so would require changes of strategic policy and posture in each country—the type of process outlined here would strongly serve the shared interests of both countries. Successfully pursued, this process could help to rebuild trust and contribute to other efforts to shape a more constructive and less competitive bilateral relationship.