STABILITY OF RECREATIONAL DEMAND MODEL

THE PRINCIPAL OBJECTIVE OF THIS STUDY WAS TO DETERMINE THE STABILITY OF PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED RECREATIONAL DEMAND MODELS, OF THE FORM Y=AE(EXPONENT- BX), WHERE Y IS ANNUAL COUNTY TRIPS TO A RESERVOIR, E=1A, A IS THE Y INTERCEPT OF A NONLINEAR REGRESSION CURVE, B IS THE RATE OF CHANGE IN THE NONLINEAR REGRESSION CURVE, AND X IS DISTANCE TO THE RESERVOIR. THE MODEL UTILIZED EASILY OBTAINABLE AND PREDICTABLE VARIABLES. THE STUDY ILLUSTRATED HOW THE MODEL CAN BE USED TO PREDICT FUTURE ATTENDANCE AND TRAFFIC VOLUMES. THREE PARKS WERE USED IN THE STUDY, AND DATA WERE COLLECTED IN INTERVIEWS WITH 25 PERCENT OF ARRIVING TRIPS AT THE PARK ENTRANCES. ALMOST 12,000 INTERVIEWS WERE CONDUCTED DURING THE PERIOD FROM 1967 THROUGH 1969. THE NEW RESERVOIR MODEL WAS DEVELOPED BY NONLINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS UTILIZING DISTANCE, POPULATION, AND INFLUENCE OF OTHER SIMILAR FACILITIES. TWO EQUATIONS CONSTITUTED THE PREDICTION MODEL: ONE FOR WHEN THERE IS NO OTHER SIMILAR FACILITY CLOSER TO A COUNTY THAN THE RESERVOIR UNDER STUDY, AND ONE FOR WHEN THERE IS ANOTHER SUCH FACILITY CLOSER TO THE COUNTY THAN THE RESERVOIR UNDER STUDY. A COMPARISON SHOWED THAT, WHILE PARAMETER B REMAINED FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER TIME, THERE WAS AN INCREASE IN PARAMETER A. /AUTHOR/