Ecologische effectberekening voor de 2e NationaleNatuurverkenning: terrestrische systemen

In the Dutch national Nature Outlook 2 the Environmental Assessment Office analyses effects of social trends on biodiversity. The possible future changes in biodiversity have been quantified in four integrated scenarios. This report describes how changes in terrestrial ecosystems were calculated with ecological models. It includes the descriptions of: 1) the definition of model input from the scenarios, 2) the ecological modelling itself and, 3) the visualisation of the calculated biodiversity changes in the Natural Capital Index. In each of the four scenarios, environmental quality improves and more space becomes available for nature areas. The improvement of environmental quality causes an increase in the quality of nature. Flora in particular benefits from lowering the deposition of acid and nitrogen components and improving the hydrology in natural areas. Integrated nature and environmental policy measures can enable the quality of nature to restore in the coming 30 years with an average of 10-15% to approximately 60% of the value of an optimally developed ecosystem. Not all types of ecosystem and group of species profit in a similar way. The increase in biodiversity is large in natural areas, whereas in urban areas the quality of nature does not improve.