Prospectiva energètica al Principat d'Andorra : model integrat d'avaluació de la seguretat energètica per a la transició cap a un escenari sostenibilista

The energy sector reform is one of the major challenges that must be faced globally during the current century. The energy model, in which the economic growth of major economies is sustained, based mainly on the intensive use of non-renewable resources, cannot be maintained in the long term or extrapolated globally. It is therefore imperative to explore alternatives to advance towards a more sustainable energy model. In this context of energy crisis, despite the decisive influence that international dynamics will have upon it, there is not a unique solution, and each country must develop its own strategy. A thorough current situation analysis, research of strategies and the evaluation of their potential will be crucial to develop a successful medium and long term energy planning. Andorra initiated the process towards his future energy system with the development of the Energy White Paper in 2012. This PhD thesis wants to participate in this path generating scientific knowledge and developing tools to support administrations in their decision making processes. The core of the thesis is aimed at building a model of Andorra?s energy system. It integrates socioeconomic and environmental factors representing the links between energy systems and key national dynamics. The model assesses current and future country?s energy security issues with an integrated vision, going beyond the classic perspective of security of supply, and being closer to the sustainability's holistic vision. This model serves as a tool to support decision making actions and allows the construction of exploratory and normative scenarios which help to visualize multiple futures and the strategies to achieve them. The integrated assessment model of energy security is built with the LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System) tool. It estimates the future energy system evolution in the period 2015-2050 and allows the inclusion of policy strategies to build alternative scenarios and assess its impacts and feasibility, under the perspective of energy security. This thesis identifies major energy challenges that must be faced in Andorra, reveals alternatives to confront these challenges and quantifies its potential. It develops LEAP-Andorra, the first long term energy planning model in Andorra and makes recommendations in order to guide future model developments.