Approximate Reliability Evaluation of Large-Scale Multistate Series-Parallel Systems

Multistate series-parallel system (MSSPS) is a widely used model for representing engineering systems, whose reliability has been extensively analyzed. Universal generating function (UGF) is an efficient method for evaluating the reliability of MSSPS. However, when facing the large-scale MSSPS, where the number of system components and possible states are enormous, calclating the exact system reliability can be rather time-consuming. To evaluate the reliability of large-scale MSSPS more efficiently, this paper proposes an approximation method, named continuization discretization approximation (CDA) method. The CDA approach consists of continuization and discretization processes. The continuization process applies Gaussian approximation method based on the central limit theory and the UGF technique to evaluate parallel subsystems. While the discretization process discretizes the continuous distribution to a discrete one, and proposes an algorithm to evaluate the series subsystems efficiently. The efficiency and accuracy performance of the CDA method can be adjusted by parameters according to the computational resource and the system scale. The newly proposed method is compared to the existing methods in evaluating the large-scale MSSPS. Numerical examples show that the CDA method has evident advantage in computational efficiency with satisfactory accuracy performance.