Using Animations of Risk Functions to Visualize Trends in US All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality, 1968–2016

Objectives. To use dynamic visualizations of mortality risk functions over both calendar year and age as a way to estimate and visualize patterns in US life spans.Methods. We built 49 synthetic cohorts, 1 per year 1968 to 2016, using National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality and population data. Within each cohort, we estimated age-specific probabilities of dying from any cause (all-cause analysis) or from a particular cause (cause-specific analysis). We then used Kaplan–Meier (all-cause) or Aalen–Johansen (cause-specific) estimators to obtain risk functions. We illustrated risk functions using time-lapse animations.Results. Median age at death increased from 75 years in 1970 to 83 years in 2015. Risk by age 100 years of cardiovascular mortality decreased (from a risk of 55% in 1970 to 32% in 2015), whereas risk attributable to other (i.e., nonrespiratory and noncardiovascular) causes increased in compensation.Conclusions. Our findings were consistent with the trends published in the NCHS 201...