Modeling AADT on local functionally classified roads using land use, road density, and nearest nonlocal road data

Abstract The focus of this research is to model the influence of road, socioeconomic, and land-use characteristics on local road annual average daily traffic (AADT) and assess the model's predictability in non-covered location AADT estimation. Traditional ordinary least square (OLS) regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) methods were explored to estimate AADT on local roads. Ten spatially distributed counties were considered for county-level analysis and modeling. The results indicate that road density, AADT at the nearest nonlocal road, and land use variables have a significant influence on local road AADT. The GWR model is found to be better at estimating the AADT than the OLS regression model. The developed county-level models were used for estimating AADT at non-covered locations in each county. The methodology, findings, and the AADT estimates at non-covered locations can be used to plan, design, build, and maintain the local roads in addition to meeting reporting requirements. The prediction error is found to be higher at urban areas and in counties with a smaller number of local road traffic count stations. Recommendations are made to account for influencing factors and enhance the local road count-based AADT sampling methodology.