Heavy rainfall, floods, and flash floods in the context of solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system

Abstract. Heavy rainfall events causing floods and flash floods are examined in the context of solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system. The superposed epoch (SPE) analyses of solar wind variables have shown a tendency of severe weather to follow arrivals of high-speed streams from solar coronal holes (Prikryl et al., 2018). Precipitation datasets based on rain-gauge and satellite sensor measurements are used to examine the relationship between the solar wind high-speed streams and daily precipitation rates over several mid-latitude regions. The SPE analysis results show an increase in occurrence of high precipitation rates following arrivals of high-speed streams, including recurrence with a periodicity of 27 days. The cross-correlation analysis applied to the SPE averages of the green (Fe XIV, 530.3 nm) corona intensity observed by ground-based coronagraphs, solar wind parameters and daily precipitation rates show correlation peaks at lags spaced by solar rotation period. When the SPE analysis is limited to years around the solar minimum (2008–2009), which was dominated by recurrent coronal holes separated by ~120˚ in heliographic longitude, significant cross-correlation peaks are found at lags spaced by 9 days. These results are further demonstrated by cases of heavy rainfall, floods and flash floods in Europe, Japan, and the U.S., highlighting the role of solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system in severe weather, mediated by aurorally excited atmospheric gravity waves.