TOTAL PREDICTED MHC-I EPITOPE LOAD IS INVERSELY ASSOCIATED WITH POPULATION MORTALITY FROM SARS-COV-2.

Polymorphisms in MHC-I protein sequences across human populations significantly impacts viral peptide binding capacity and thus alters T cell immunity to infection. In the present study, we assess the relationship between observed SARS-CoV-2 population mortality and the predicted viral binding capacities of 52 common MHC-I alleles. Potential SARS-CoV-2 MHC-I peptides are identified using a consensus MHC-I binding and presentation prediction algorithm, called EnsembleMHC. Starting with nearly 3.5 million candidates, we resolve a few hundred highly probable MHC-I peptides. By weighing individual MHC allele-specific SARS-CoV-2 binding capacity with population frequency in 23 countries, we discover a strong inverse correlation between predicted population SARS-CoV-2 peptide binding capacity and mortality rate. Our computations reveal that peptides derived from the structural proteins of the virus produce a stronger association with observed mortality rate, highlighting the importance of S, N, M, E proteins in driving productive immune responses.