A dynamic simulation model of tourism and environment in the Yucatán peninsula

Tourism in the Yucatan peninsula has been and is still growing, which may lead to conflicts between tourism and the environment, population and other economic sectors. A dynamic simulation model ahs been developed to understand the dynamic relationships between economy, environment, and population. In this model several scenarios are analyzed which incorporate various policies and development paths. The quality of the water, the beaches and the archeological sites are important factor for the tourism sector. Tourism in Yucatan is also dependent on other factors which are not directly related to tourism, such as safety or popularity of other areas or countries. The main goal of this study is to obtain an insight into the dynamic interactions between the main factors influencing tourism. The results indicate that tourism shows a cyclical path, that policies to clean up the water not only have a positive effect on tourism but also on the rest of the economy. Even if the tourist sector has to pay for the cleaning up it will benefit them. The model shows that the effects of stimulating investments in tourism are not profitable for tourism in the long run.