Short-term, medium-term, long-term, and lifetime risks of developing and dying of breast carcinoma in a Westernized Chinese Population: Evidence from Hong Kong between 1976 and 2000

BACKGROUND Estimates of lifetime and shorter-term risks of developing and dying of breast carcinoma are useful translational statistics for risk communication; however, these statistics are unknown for Chinese women, who account for one-fifth of the world's female population. In the current study, the authors examined age-specific 5-year, 10-year, 20-year, and lifetime risks of breast carcinoma incidence and disease-related mortality among Hong Kong women. METHODS Multiple-decrement life tables were constructed by applying age-specific incidence and mortality rates obtained from cross-sectional data to a hypothetic birth cohort. Incidence, mortality, and population data from 1976 through 2000 were used. RESULTS For Hong Kong women in the period 1996–2000, the overall lifetime risk of developing invasive breast carcinoma was 5.7% (1 in 17), compared with 10.6% (1 in 9) for U.S. Asian/Pacific Islander women and 14.5% (1 in 7) for U.S. white women. The lifetime breast carcinoma–related mortality risk for Hong Kong women in that same period was 1.7% (1 in 58). For women age 50 years, the 5-, 10-, and 20-year risks of developing breast carcinoma were 0.6% (1 in 172), 1.1% (1 in 87), and 2.1% (1 in 47), respectively. The absolute lifetime probability of developing breast carcinoma increased from 3.81% (1 in 26) during the period 1976–1980 to 5.73% (1 in 17) during the period 1996–2000; 44.5% of this change can be attributed to the increased longevity of women in the latter time period, and the remaining 55.5% can be ascribed to a secular rise in breast carcinoma incidence. CONCLUSIONS As China becomes more Westernized, the authors expect that the risks of developing and dying of breast carcinoma for Chinese women will become more similar to the corresponding risks for Western women. The current data from Hong Kong, the most Westernized Chinese community, appear to support this conclusion. Cancer 2005. © 2004 American Cancer Society.