Assessing a new direction for fusion

Abstract The principal application proposed for fusion for the past 40 years has been the central station, electrical power generation plant. However, the sizable increases that were forecast for future electrical power demands have not been realized to date. Only coal power plants have been increasing (3%/year) generating capacity (Annual Energy Outlook, 1998) [1] . Likewise, the ability of fusion to deliver economical electrical power has not been credibly postulated, much less demonstrated. Together these two factors have stagnated the commercialization of fusion power. It is now time for a reassessment of what fusion can best do for the world. Fusion, with a practically inexhaustible energy supply, has many unique properties that enable a wide variety of useful products. A study by the ARIES team is underway to review possible fusion applications and assess those with the potential to provide useful and worthwhile new products. A roadmap of possible applications has been developed to assess the utilization of the unique properties of the fusion process. The potential product categories are energy production (fuel, electricity, heat), space propulsion, altered or transmuted material properties (transmutation, waste treatment, tritium production), chemical compound dissociation (waste treatment, ore reduction, refining), and direct use of fusion nuclear products (radiography, lithography, radiotherapy, activation analyses). An evaluation methodology based on the success and failure of previous large, national and international technology development projects was developed to assess and recommend encouraging fusion product applications. A list of significant attributes was defined to describe and characterize projects that are likely to succeed or fail in the global marketplace. These attributes were assigned weights according to their perceived value to the national or global enterprise. An additive utility theory methodology was used to qualitatively evaluate the proposed applications in terms of market potential, environmental considerations, economic impact, risk and public perception. Quantified values were assigned to each potential fusion application and market to make more intelligent decisions on the allocation of future resources. Incorporating some of the long term market trends suggested in the December 1997 Kyoto Climate Change Conference, the most favored fusion applications were found to be the production of hydrogen fuels, transmutation of nuclear wastes and dissociation of chemical compounds, all slightly ahead of electricity production. The results from this decision analysis process will help balance the benefits of success against the risks of failure to help select promising products for future study.