Expiring Eviction Moratoriums and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality.

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic crisis have placed millions of U.S. households at risk of eviction. Evictions may accelerate COVID-19 transmission by decreasing individuals' ability to socially distance. We leveraged variation in the expiration of eviction moratoriums in U.S. states to test for associations between evictions and COVID-19 incidence and mortality. The study included 44 U.S. states that instituted eviction moratoriums, followed from March 13th to September 3rd, 2020. We modeled associations using a difference-in-difference approach with an event-study specification. Negative-binomial-regression models of cases and deaths included fixed effects for state and week and controlled for time-varying indicators of testing, stay-at-home orders, school closures, and mask mandates. COVID-19 incidence and mortality increased steadily in states after eviction moratoriums expired, and were associated with doubling of COVID-19 incidence (incidence rate ratio 2.1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1,3.9) and a five-fold increase in COVID-19 mortality (mortality rate ratio 5.4; CI 3.1,9.3) 16 weeks after moratoriums lapsed. These results imply an estimated 433,700 excess cases (CI 365200, 502200) and 10,700 excess deaths (CI 8900,12500) nationally by September 3, 2020. The expiration of eviction moratoriums was associated with increased COVID-19 incidence and mortality, supporting the public-health rationale for eviction prevention to limit COVID-19 cases and deaths.