Use of Entry-Only Automatic Fare Collection Data to Estimate Linked Transit Trips in New York City

Many large transit systems use automatic fare collection (AFC) systems. Most AFC systems were designed solely for revenue management, but they contain a wealth of customer use data that can be mined to create inputs to operations planning and demand forecasting models for transportation planning. More detailed information than could ever be collected by any travel survey is potentially available if it is assumed that the transactional data can be processed to produce the desired information. Previous work in this field focused primarily on rail transit, since boardings at fixed stations are easier to locate than boardings of buses, which move around. This paper presents a case study for the Metropolitan Transit Authority's New York City Transit, a transit system in which a rider swipes a fare card only to enter a station or board a bus. This is the first work to include trips by all transit modes in a system that records the transaction only on rider entry, which is significantly more challenging because ...