A novel age-biomarker-clinical history prognostic index for heart failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction

Purpose A model for predicting the prognosis of patients with heart failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (HFrEF) is currently not available. This study aimed to develop an age-biomarker-clinical history prognostic index (ABC-PI) and validate it for the assessment of individual prognosis. Patients and methods A total of 5,974 HFrEF patients were enrolled and 1,529 were included in this study after excluding missing values and loss to follow-up. Variables that significantly contributed to prediction of all-cause mortality were assessed by Cox regression and latent trait analysis (LTA) was used to validate discrimination of variables. Results After Cox regression, the following seven most significant variables were selected: age, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, renal dysfunction, left ventricular mass index, percutaneous coronary intervention, atrial fibrillation, and New York Heart Association (C-index: 0.801 ± 0.013). After verification by LTA, discrimination of these seven variables was proven. A nomogram was used to form the ABC-PI, and then the total score was set to 100 points. A lower score indicated a higher risk. After verification, the 3-year mortality rate was 34.7% in the high-risk group and only 2.6% in the low-risk group. Conclusion Our novel ABC-PI shows a good performance and does not require re-input in the original model. The ABC-PI can be used to effectively and practically predict the prognosis of HFrEF patients.