Migration urbanization and deforestation in the Ecuadorian Amazon: the second generation. Draft.

Since the 1970s migration to the Amazon has led to rapid population growth and land clearing. Over time a second phenomenon has emerged-urbanization. This paper uses longitudinal household survey data on migrant settler colonists in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon from 1990 and 1999 to analyze what happens to the second generation. A multinomial discrete-time hazard model is used to estimate the determinants of out-migration to urban vs. rural areas and addresses key questions: Do the children of the migrant settlers stay on the farm or move out as they reach adulthood? Do they extend the frontier by moving to rural destinations feed the growth of local towns/cities or move back to origin areas? The results show important differentials between migrants and non-migrants and among types of migrants in personal characteristics human capital landholdings lifecycle access to community infrastructure and networks. The paper concludes with policy implications. (authors)