МОДЕЛЬ АДАПТИВНОГО ПЛАНИРОВАНИЯ ПРОЕКТНЫХ РАБОТ

The task of planning work while the implementation of the project, where you can separate several stages, is discussed in the article. Dependent stages are allowed, the fulfillment of which is possible only after the successful completion of a particular stage or group of stages. The approach for receiving the maximum mean income under planning for the period under review is offered, positive or negative income is associated with the fulfillment or non-fulfillment of certain stages of the project. The basis of approach and Markov chain theory are the method of dynamic programming. All the variables of the given problem are described, the necessary formulas and equations for numerical calculations based on the recursive Bellman relation are given. The processing of expert estimates (obtaining the transition probabilities of Markov chains) is proposed to be made using the methods of Saaty. The decision result is the selection of admissible managements. Managements (management decisions) allow to adapt with various scenarios which may occur on the implementation stages of projects.