Impacts of transit reliability on wait time: insights from AFC data

2007 
Theoretical models linking wait time and reliability have proposed that waiting can be extended in situations where reliability is poor. However the quantitative justification of these models is limited. This paper provides a more robust quantitative assessment of these theories based on automated fare collection system (AFC) data for heavy rail services in Melbourne, Australia. AFC provides a wealth of data upon which the theory can be tested. The results find support for the theory that passengers time arrivals for peak services and have more random arrivals off peak. No support for the general theory of a higher degree of early passenger arrivals in relation to unreliable services was found. There was some corroboration that more random passenger arrivals occur with unreliable services. However this effect was substantially less than theorized for bus services. A new phenomenon of 'late running awareness' was demonstrated which challenges the robustness of theories based on scheduled service arrival times. Overall AFC data has been found to be a strong cheap and reliable source of information for behavioural studies of this kind. Areas for additional research are suggested.
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