Exploring the changing patterns of China's migration and its determinants using census data of 2000 and 2010

Abstract China has witnessed substantial and surging internal migration over the past three decades, and the ascendant trend of migration will continue within the New Urbanization in China, shaping drastically China's population redistribution, and inducing surge of crowded cities and “hollowing village”. This paper analyzed the spatial-temporal patterns of migration at provincial level during 2000–2010, and found: (1) the migration pattern demonstrated increasingly strengthened polarity in migration pool and source regions/provinces and migration flows. (2) The interregional/interprovincial migration population was higher than the intraregional/intra-provincial, and the gap between them strengthened with time. (3) The migration population grew with time, but the migration distance almost kept unchanged. To analyze the determinants of migration, this paper adopted an improved gravity model which introduced environment variables and included five types of variables, and found: (1) the path dependence variable had the most significant impact on migration, and the wages of staff and workers followed in 2000 and 2010. (2) The wages of origin provinces exerted a strong “push” to migrants, larger than the “pull” from the destination provinces in 2000, and the “push” changed to smaller than the “pull” in 2010. (3) Natural environment gradually became an attractive factor that migrants took into consideration, and the obstruction of distance to migration gradually reduced.