External Validation of a Dutch Predictive Nomogram for Complete Response to T-VEC in an Independent American Patient Cohort.

Purpose Talimogene Laherparepvec (T-VEC) is a modified herpes simplex virus type-1 used as intralesional immunotherapy in stage IIIB-IVM1a melanoma patients. Recently, Stahlie et al. published a predictive model for complete response (CR) to T-VEC. This study was designed to validate this model externally in an independent, American patient cohort. Methods In total, 71 stage IIIB-IVM1a melanoma patients treated with T-VEC at Moffitt Cancer Center were included. A second nomogram was built incorporating the same predictive factors: tumor size (diameter of largest metastasis), type of metastases (cutaneous, subcutaneous and nodal), and number of metastases (cutoff: 20). Predictive accuracy was assessed through calculation of overall performance, discriminative ability, and calibration. Results The two cohorts were similar in many clinicopathologic factors and only differing in tumor mutational status and use of systemic therapy prior to T-VEC. In the validation cohort, 37 (52%) patients showed CR, 22 (31%) partial response (PR), 2 (5.6%) stable disease (SD), and 10 (15%) progressive disease (PD). Of those who demonstrated a CR, 16 (43%) recurred. Overall performance was good (0.164), and discriminative power resulted in fair discriminative ability (0.827). The calibration curve showed slight underestimation for predicted probabilities > 0.15 and slight overestimation Conclusions The original model as well as the validation model show comparable and good predictive accuracy. The validation model reinforces the conclusion that for the best response to T-VEC, it should be used early on in the course of the disease, when the tumor burden is cutaneous with smaller diameter and fewer of metastases.