Land Use Optimization in a Resource-Exhausted City Based on Simulation of the F-E-W Nexus

Limited land resources are used to meet the growing economic, social, and ecological needs of people in China. Food, energy, and water (F-E-W) are the basic resources for supporting human survival and the transformation of different land uses. This paper tries to construct a theoretical framework of land use and the F-E-W nexus and uses system dynamics to simulate the optimal allocation of land use in Shizuishan City, China, by comparing different scenarios that have different parameters related to F-E-W. The final results follow: (1) according to the relationship between land use and the F-E-W nexus, a three-layer nested theoretical framework is constructed. (2) Future land use under different scenarios differs. Under the scenarios of a less dependence on coal energy, a higher utilization efficiency of energy and agricultural water resources, and a lower grain self-sufficiency rate, there are less crop and urban lands but more ecological land. However, generally speaking, crop and rural construction lands tend to decrease, while urban and ecological lands tend to increase. (3) Combined with different objectives, the rapid transformation scenario is considered a better option in which to achieve a balance among the economy, society, and ecology. This paper also discusses the application of land use optimization in the delineation of three control lines in territory-space planning in China.