A mathematical model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Mexico.
2017
We present a model that incorporates two co-circulating viral diseases, Dengue
and Chikungunya, where we allow secondary infections from either of the two
diseases. We only consider one vector population, Ae. aegypti since in the
Mexican region where we set our scenarios, only this species has been reported to
transmit both viruses. We estimate the basic reproduction number and perform
numerical simulations for different scenarios where we may observe coexistence
of Dengue and Chikungunya; we also compare the results of the model with
Dengue and Chikungunya data from Mexico 2015 and we obtain a good model
fit. To complete our findings we perform a sensitivity analysis, and calculate the
partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs) to determine the parameter values
influence on the reproduction numbers and predict fate of the diseases.
We show that R0 for each one of the viruses is highly sensitive to the mosquito
biting rate and the transmission rates for both diseases with positive ifluence
and the average lifespan of mosquito along with the human recovery rate with
negative ifluence on both diseases. Our results are consistent with those of
previous authors.
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