Modeling the effects of bioclimatic characteristics and distribution on the occurrence of Cyrtotrachelus buqueti in the Sichuan Basin

Abstract The beetle Cyrtotrachelus buqueti is the primary defoliator of bamboo in China, and causes significant economic losses and influences the development of an ecological barrier. This study aimed to identify the geographic distribution of Cyrtotrachelus buqueti and its major areas of occurrence, analyze the bioclimatic characteristics favorable for Cyrtotrachelus buqueti, and formulate measures for early warning, monitoring, and control of this pest. Analyses of suitable bioclimatic characteristics were carried out using Maxent software, and the spatial distribution and model fit were analyzed using ArcGIS and Matlab. We found that temperature annual range had the greatest contribution to the distribution of Cyrtotrachelus buqueti according to jackknife test. Mean temperature of coldest quarter (3–12 °C) and mean temperature of driest quarter (4–12 °C) were also important to this pest. The occurrence of Cyrtotrachelus buqueti complied with a t location-scale distribution (α = 0.1% confidence level) in terms of longitude, a generalized extreme-value distribution (α = 0.1% confidence level) in terms of latitude, and a log-logistic distribution (α = 0.1% confidence level) in terms of elevation. The hazard centroid has changed considerably over time in terms of these variables. The regions most damaged by Cyrtotrachelus buqueti were in southeastern parts of Sichuan Province (103.6°E, 29.2°N, elevation 400 m).