Urban mitigation and building adaptation to minimize the future cooling energy needs

Abstract In several areas of the world, the population concentrates along the coastal regions, benefitting from the sea breeze, with warmer inland areas. However, increasing population is driving urban sprawl in traditionally low-density areas, enhancing the synergies between global and local climate change. Here we show that local climate mitigation can reduce the impacts of climate change, with the analysis of a new development area in Sydney, 50 km from the coast. With meso-scale climate modelling, we computed that by 2050 the peak summer temperature will increase by 0.8 °C and the daily average summer temperature by 1.6 °C. Mitigation with cool materials, greenery, and irrigation will lower the peak and average daily temperatures respectively by 2.2 °C and 1.6 °C with respect to the unmitigated future climate scenario. Mitigation techniques when applied in the whole Sydney area yield to cooling energy needs reductions by 6.7–8.6 kWh/m2 (13.4–19.3%) for typical residential, office, and school buildings, with a negligible heating penalty, compared to an unmitigated future scenario. Combined adaptation and mitigation can reduce the future cooling energy needs by 31.3 kWh/m2 (70%), 29.3 kWh/m2 (57.3%), and 20.9 kWh/m2 (59.4%) for typical residential, office, and school building, respectively. Our study indicates that the consolidated and widely available mitigation technologies alone cannot counteract the energy impact of both global and local climate change. A structured system of interventions at building and urban scale is necessary while developing novel and higher efficiency mitigation technologies.