Technical and economic effects of an inline progesterone indicator in a dairy herd estimated by stochastic simulation

Abstract For several years progesterone in milk or blood has been recognized as an indicator of different cow states related to reproduction. For this study, an existing simulation model was modified in order to analyze the technical and economic effects of including information on progesterone status in an automatic inline monitoring system. Implementation of an inline progesterone indicator was assumed to directly affect the estrus detection rate, the period until treatment for post-partum anestrus and the number of mistimed AIs. Different implementations of an inline progesterone indicator were simulated in a typical Danish dairy herd with 120 cows and in other herd situations represented by: a herd with poor reproduction efficiency, a herd with a high estrus detection rate and a herd using a 9 week postponed AI period for primiparous cows. It was concluded that implementation of an inline progesterone indicator in a dairy herd previously using visual estrus detection has a break-even price of €3–81 per cow-year depending on differences in implementation type and herd reproduction management. The highest break-even price was found using the assumptions that simulated a herd with initially poor reproductive efficiency. With the assumptions that simulated a typical Danish herd the break-even price was €46 per cow-year. Attributable effects of using the indicator, including effects of labor time, are discussed.