Scenarios for World energy: Barricades or New Frontiers?

Abstract Two global scenarios are used to explore future energy uncertainties. In New Frontiers , developing countries liberalize their economies and achieve high growth. This is a competitive turbulent world in which energy resources are stretched but prove adequate as a result of technological improvements in exploration and production. In Barricades liberalization is resisted and restricted as countries strive to cling to traditional ethnic, national, and religious values. Growth is slower, rich and poor become polarized and there is hostility to the use of energy. Scenario planning is a useful tool to develop strategies which are robust and flexible against such uncertainties.