A severity index study of long-term prognosis in patients with chronic heart failure

Abstract Aims The present study describes the derivation and validation of the Chronic Heart Failure Severity Index (CHFSI). Main methods The CHFSI was derived using data obtained from a single-center prospective cohort study (2000–2014) that enrolled 756 patients. Logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors of mortality and quality of life over a 15-year follow-up period. Key findings The score was validated at the first 5-year ( n  = 644), second 5-year ( n  = 364), and third 5-year ( n  = 262). Independent predictors of mortality were older age (OR = 2.04, P P P  = 0.027), higher systolic blood pressure (OR = 2.35, P P  = 0.018). The derived CHFSI predicted the mortality, and the AUC for the logistic model was 0.78 (95% confidence interval = 0.74–0.81, P P P Significance The CHFSI is a very useful clinical predictive tool that identifies patients at risk of future mortality and their quality of life across healthcare systems.