Proposição e estimação da equação de dinâmica produtiva segundo a abordagem Estruturalista Pós-Keynesiana

Using as reference the Extended Post-Keynesian Model (EPKM) – canonical model from this approach to treatment of the relationship between inflation, output dynamic and economic policy – is developed the Structuralist Output Gap Curve (CHPE), an dynamic output equation based on Principle of Effective Demand and Big Government hypothesis, forming dynamics in which transitory deviations from the stochastic trend are related with accelerators coming from consumption, public sector, financial sector and external sector. The CHPE is estimated in panels of countries after defining output gap by a formulation where trends are linearly divided into parts, being obtained, as expected, a parameter of past output gap with a value lesser than unity and where the accelerators are relevant in most groups of countries and periods, in special the extra spending of consumers. The estimates successfully support the proposed approach on output dynamics determinants, confirming the theoretical rule that there is partial inertia on the stochastic rate of economic growth.