A screening tool using five risk factors was developed for fall-risk prediction in Chinese community-dwelling elderly individuals

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine falls risk profiles to derive a falls risks prediction score and establish a simple and practical clinical screening tool for Chinese community-dwelling elderly individuals. METHOD: This was a prospective cohort study (N=619) among adults aged 60 years and older. Falls were ascertained at a 1-year follow-up appointment. Sociodemographic information, medical history and physical performance data were collected. RESULT: The mean age was 67.4 years; 57.7% were women. Female sex (Odds Ratios (OR) 1.82; 95% CI 1.17-2.82), diabetes (OR 2.13; 95% CI 1.13-3.98), a Timed Up and Go Test≥10.49s (OR 1.51; 95% CI 1.23-1.94), a history of falls (OR 3.15; 95% CI 1.72-5.79), and depression (Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS)≥11, OR 2.51; 95% CI 1.36-4.63) were the strongest predictors. These predictors were used to establish a risk score. The area under the curve (AUC) of the score was 0.748. From a clinical point of view the most appropriate cutoff value was 7 (97.5% specificity, 70.7% positive predictive value (PPV), and 83.6% negative predictive value (NPV)). For this cutoff, the fraction correctly classified was 82.5%. CONCLUSION: A cut off score of 7 derived from a risk assessment tool using four risk factors (gender, falls history, diabetes, and depression) and the TUGT may be used in Chinese community-dwelling elderly individuals as an initial step to screen those at low risk for falls. Language: en