Prospects of Boro rice production in Bangladesh

The present study was undertaken to examine the rate of growth as well as forecasting and factor influencing variability of area and production of boro rice in different time periods of the country. Secondary data for the period of 1972-73 to 2011-12 were used for this study.The growth rates of total period were computed between four subperiods. Area and production of boro rice showed insignificant positive growth during the period of 1972-73 to 1981-82.For all other time periods, the growth rates showed significant and positive growth during the study period.The area and production of boro rice during the period 1972-73 to 1981-82 shows the highest degree of instability which is significant at 1% level.For forecasting, linear, Logarithmic, Quadratic, Cubic, Compound and Inverse models have been fitted and projections have been made on the basis of the best fitted regression model.The cubic model was the best fitted model selected using model selection criteria.The projection of area and production indicated the vital potential of boro rice area and production in the time periods. Thus, policy makers, stake holders and beneficiaries (farmers) should take necessary steps to check the decline in area under boro rice without farther delay.